another side note to the D3 theme...
1 to 22, that's a quite a 24hr jump, but the units are probably not well defined to begin with, plus all the other issues. Probably the most well defined is 'confirmed cases', meaning DNA testing shows the virus is present in the patient.
Today's numbers show another exponential step 17*1.5^4 and 571*1.5^4.
So far, the media is not using the term 'exponential growth' when it reports on the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths. The closest to that was yesterday, the 25th, when the Washington Post reported a 24hr increase of 50%, which is the same as the 1.5 number above.
Today, the 26th, 'exponential growth' was edited into a histogram caption on the wiki Timeline page.
BNONews.com seems to have the most detailed tracking.
A qualitatively new update today was made by the Chinese Health Minister. Via a translator, Ma Xiaowei announced "From our observation, the disease can be spread during the incubation period. The incubation period lasts for 10 days" (Washington post News video clip). To qualify that translation, the CDC said China had not informed the CDC of that development.
There was an article in mainstream media today that put the Wuhan virus in perspective by noting that each year in the US about 10,000 people die from the common flu. And to tie this back to low vitamin D levels, a quote was pulled in, along the lines of "The virus is the symptom, not the cause".
Coronavirus
Moderators: Rosie, Stanz, Jean, CAMary, moremuscle, JFR, Dee, xet, Peggy, Matthew, Gabes-Apg, grannyh, Gloria, Mars, starfire, Polly, Joefnh
Reports set today down as another step along the exponential curves for confirmed cases and for deaths. Media still has not picked up the term. It's hard for me to see how this growth can continue many more days before it overwhelms health resources, PCR capacity in particular, at which point there would be a daily increase in the backlog of patients waiting for their PCR results. The backlog itself would grow exponentially. Just rambling here.
Today, semi-log plots of the two stats was edited into the wiki Timeline page.
Today, semi-log plots of the two stats was edited into the wiki Timeline page.
Welp, there's a confirmed case of coronavirus an hour south of me. I've been taking 10,000 IU of D3, magnesium, K2, methyl Bs, and Elderberry tincture since August. I also got the senior flu shot. So, the virus is here and hopefully I've created a strong defense against it. I'm not going to panic tho, that'll only cause me to flair.
Diana
I've bumped my vitamin D up to 10,000 IU daily too, while I'm waiting for my test results from ZRT Laboratory. I'd like to get my level up over 60 ng/mL at least. I'll bet it's well below that, this time of year.
Tex
Tex
It is suspected that some of the hardest material known to science can be found in the skulls of GI specialists who insist that diet has nothing to do with the treatment of microscopic colitis.
The current odds are roughly equivalent, of a Hubei resident dying from a Wuhan virus infection and a US resident dying from the flu.
For example, monthly death toll divided by population:
Hubei: 300 / 58,000,000 = 0.000005
US: 2000 / 330,000,000 = 0.000006
On the other hand, the odds are roughly 2 times higher for US suicides - a US resident is twice as likely to kill themselves as they are to be killed an influenza virus.
For example, monthly death toll divided by population:
Hubei: 300 / 58,000,000 = 0.000005
US: 2000 / 330,000,000 = 0.000006
On the other hand, the odds are roughly 2 times higher for US suicides - a US resident is twice as likely to kill themselves as they are to be killed an influenza virus.
Like many old farts, I have a diverse background with significant depth in a couple areas, in proportion to my age. And two cousins both older than me that have lived all their life within 100 yards of where they were brought home as a newborn, and an acquaintance also older than me who has lived all his life only in four houses, all within a 200 yard radius. Boggles my mind, but is true!
Back to vitamin D, what is the list of various tests that a doc could order that would include these levels?
Back to vitamin D, what is the list of various tests that a doc could order that would include these levels?
Another side note to the D3 theme,
A lot of the stats, 'official' reports, media reporting emphasize a very low mortality rate, about 2%, calculated by deaths divided by infections. However, there is another way to look at the seriousness, taking into account the reported numbers of people who have recovered. Unfortunately, it is grim. Currently, the number of patients who have recovered is about the same as the number who have succumbed, meaning once infected, a patient has a 50-50 chance of surviving. The 50-50 stat is of course tempered by the reliability (or not) of the reports, as is the 2% figure.
On other grim fronts, the numbers are growing such that by the end of the today there will be about 25,000 patients who have tested positive, and about 500 who have passed on.
Because nearly all cases are in China, it is considered an epidemic, and not yet considered a pandemic.
Because the travel restrictions are so debilitating to individuals and to economies, it is certain that they will be lifted too soon to prevent it from globalizing. The hope is that a vaccine and/or an highly effective treatment will be developed and approved before it globalizes.
A lot of the stats, 'official' reports, media reporting emphasize a very low mortality rate, about 2%, calculated by deaths divided by infections. However, there is another way to look at the seriousness, taking into account the reported numbers of people who have recovered. Unfortunately, it is grim. Currently, the number of patients who have recovered is about the same as the number who have succumbed, meaning once infected, a patient has a 50-50 chance of surviving. The 50-50 stat is of course tempered by the reliability (or not) of the reports, as is the 2% figure.
On other grim fronts, the numbers are growing such that by the end of the today there will be about 25,000 patients who have tested positive, and about 500 who have passed on.
Because nearly all cases are in China, it is considered an epidemic, and not yet considered a pandemic.
Because the travel restrictions are so debilitating to individuals and to economies, it is certain that they will be lifted too soon to prevent it from globalizing. The hope is that a vaccine and/or an highly effective treatment will be developed and approved before it globalizes.
I flew two commuter flights from the northeast US to Florida last week. One person on first flight wore a mask. I saw one young Asian wearing a mask in the Charlotte airport. Everyone else was maskless. On my second flight one Asian of college age wore a mask.
I fly again in 3 weeks with reservations I made pre Coronavirus.
Then I fly in 5 weeks to Sacramento for business. I just booked this flight. Flight costs to California have really dropped.
I fly again in 3 weeks with reservations I made pre Coronavirus.
Then I fly in 5 weeks to Sacramento for business. I just booked this flight. Flight costs to California have really dropped.
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Gabes-Apg
- Emperor Penguin
- Posts: 8332
- Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 3:12 pm
- Location: Hunter Valley NSW Australia
Here in Aus, Asians wore mask for past 3 months as smoke haze pollution levels were 20times worse than cities of china. It is common for Asians to wear masks when travelling, long before corona virus. And a fair amount of Asians that have the money to travel internationally are from Japan, Korea etc.
My thoughts, corona virus is a strain of the flu. Like most flu seasons, vulnerable people get very sick die. (Aged, immune compromised, poverty living conditions).
In the media I have read, it does not give age break down or health/poverty breakdown of those affected.
Is it healthy people contracting this flu. Or aged/immune/poverty impacted people. As it is china, we may never get accurate info.
Flights from china to Australia in recent weeks, there are not plane loads of people getting sick, there is 1 maybe 2, On some planes not all, For a 300 person per plane, that is similar contagion rate as the flu.
Wash hands, avoid large crowds, up Vit D, eat cleanly. Most of all don't panic or obsess.
My thoughts, corona virus is a strain of the flu. Like most flu seasons, vulnerable people get very sick die. (Aged, immune compromised, poverty living conditions).
In the media I have read, it does not give age break down or health/poverty breakdown of those affected.
Is it healthy people contracting this flu. Or aged/immune/poverty impacted people. As it is china, we may never get accurate info.
Flights from china to Australia in recent weeks, there are not plane loads of people getting sick, there is 1 maybe 2, On some planes not all, For a 300 person per plane, that is similar contagion rate as the flu.
Wash hands, avoid large crowds, up Vit D, eat cleanly. Most of all don't panic or obsess.
Gabes Ryan
"Anything that contradicts experience and logic should be abandoned"
Dalai Lama
"Anything that contradicts experience and logic should be abandoned"
Dalai Lama
At the moment, there is a big difference. There are neither vaccines nor highly effective treatments for the Wuhan coronavirus strains (plural since there is evidence it is mutating).
Taking measures (which may seem extreme at the moment and may statistically have little personal benefit) does have major benefits for society to the extent the measures help prevent spread to and within countries in which it is not yet epidemic (essentially countries/populations other than Hubei, China). Taking measures that aid containment 'buys time' for vaccines and treatments to be developed, then proven via clinical trials, and then production scaled up.
Since it is a novel virus, the only people that have antibodies for it are those patients that have recovered, reportedly less than 700 people worldwide. For everyone else, the current knowledge is that exposure in the clinical sense equates to being infected, which means that their initial viral load will multiply, even for people with no other health issues. This reproduction will escalate until one two things occur. The patient's immune system learns to make antibodies for it. Or the patient succumbs either to the symptoms (e.g. pneumonia) or secondarily (e.g. heart attack).
On the downside, the current data for these two outcomes puts it at 50-50. There is no reason to think the demographics are identical for the two. Healthy individuals may feel relief. But most also have elderly or health-compromised love ones and their prospects are equivalently biased, but in the other direction. In the end, we take measures not to protect their own life, but to protect the lives of vulnerable minority.
That is how I see it.
Taking measures (which may seem extreme at the moment and may statistically have little personal benefit) does have major benefits for society to the extent the measures help prevent spread to and within countries in which it is not yet epidemic (essentially countries/populations other than Hubei, China). Taking measures that aid containment 'buys time' for vaccines and treatments to be developed, then proven via clinical trials, and then production scaled up.
Since it is a novel virus, the only people that have antibodies for it are those patients that have recovered, reportedly less than 700 people worldwide. For everyone else, the current knowledge is that exposure in the clinical sense equates to being infected, which means that their initial viral load will multiply, even for people with no other health issues. This reproduction will escalate until one two things occur. The patient's immune system learns to make antibodies for it. Or the patient succumbs either to the symptoms (e.g. pneumonia) or secondarily (e.g. heart attack).
On the downside, the current data for these two outcomes puts it at 50-50. There is no reason to think the demographics are identical for the two. Healthy individuals may feel relief. But most also have elderly or health-compromised love ones and their prospects are equivalently biased, but in the other direction. In the end, we take measures not to protect their own life, but to protect the lives of vulnerable minority.
That is how I see it.
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Gabes-Apg
- Emperor Penguin
- Posts: 8332
- Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 3:12 pm
- Location: Hunter Valley NSW Australia
there are lots of health conditions that are mutating and appearing novel.
is the virus / health condition novel - or is the way our immune system reacting to the virus novel??
there are vaccinated people impacted by measles and whooping cough.
In the last 10-15 years there have been other novel flu/virus conditions, avian flu, swine flu, hendra virus
is the virus / health condition novel - or is the way our immune system reacting to the virus novel??
there are vaccinated people impacted by measles and whooping cough.
In the last 10-15 years there have been other novel flu/virus conditions, avian flu, swine flu, hendra virus
Gabes Ryan
"Anything that contradicts experience and logic should be abandoned"
Dalai Lama
"Anything that contradicts experience and logic should be abandoned"
Dalai Lama
In the case of the Wuhan coronavirus, its genome has been sequenced. And, it is thought to have jumped from bats to humans. So those are two ways in which the virus is novel.
Most years, new strains of the influenza virus breakout. Flu vaccinations, based on previous strains, only help to the degree that the vaccine-triggered production of antibodies are lethal to the new strains. Partial effectiveness buys the body more time to develop more effective antibodies.
Vaccines are like drugs or any medical procedure. People respond differently. For some, a given vaccine doesn't trigger the immune system effectively to produce the desired antibodies.
Fortunately, most of life is 100%.
There are 140 times more people in the world than in Hubei. Accordingly, and crudely, worldwide fatalities would now (far) exceed 70,000 deaths if containment efforts had not been made. Put another way, containment has saved over 140 lives for every fatality to date. If only all of modern life's curve balls were so effectively addressed.
My thinking, and from what I've read, is that the Wuhan virus will eventually spread across the globe. But before it does, containment buys researchers time to develop/validate/produce vaccines and treatments that will help the vulnerable battle an infection.
Most years, new strains of the influenza virus breakout. Flu vaccinations, based on previous strains, only help to the degree that the vaccine-triggered production of antibodies are lethal to the new strains. Partial effectiveness buys the body more time to develop more effective antibodies.
Vaccines are like drugs or any medical procedure. People respond differently. For some, a given vaccine doesn't trigger the immune system effectively to produce the desired antibodies.
Fortunately, most of life is 100%.
There are 140 times more people in the world than in Hubei. Accordingly, and crudely, worldwide fatalities would now (far) exceed 70,000 deaths if containment efforts had not been made. Put another way, containment has saved over 140 lives for every fatality to date. If only all of modern life's curve balls were so effectively addressed.
My thinking, and from what I've read, is that the Wuhan virus will eventually spread across the globe. But before it does, containment buys researchers time to develop/validate/produce vaccines and treatments that will help the vulnerable battle an infection.
Exactly.Here wrote:My thinking, and from what I've read, is that the Wuhan virus will eventually spread across the globe. But before it does, containment buys researchers time to develop/validate/produce vaccines and treatments that will help the vulnerable battle an infection.
Tex
It is suspected that some of the hardest material known to science can be found in the skulls of GI specialists who insist that diet has nothing to do with the treatment of microscopic colitis.
Thanks so much for posting this Tex, such great information. I did NOT have my vitamin d level checked at last blood work but am thinking I need to get this done as well. I live in Maine so really suffer from lack of the sunshine at this time of the year, especially.tex wrote:I ordered a vitamin D test kit from ZRT Laboratory this morning, so I'll know exactly where my vitamin D level is these days. It's surely at a low point for the year.
Tex