Is Celiac Disease Actually Increasing?

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In July of 2010, a couple of doctors at the Mayo Clinic proclaimed that celiac disease had increased to 4 times the original level, in a period of 50 years, beginning in the 1950s. They based this on the analysis of blood samples found in military recruits, by comparing blood samples saved from the 1950s with similar samples taken during recent blood draws from military personnel.

http://discoverysedge.mayo.edu/celiac-disease/

I'm not convinced that the conclusions reached in that study are correct, but be that as it may, because we now have another study that shows that celiac diagnostic rates in GB have quadrupled in the last 20 years. Wow! That would lead one to believe that we have a real celiac epidemic on our hands, since it seems to be increasing at an accelerated rate as time goes by. But is it?

The article states that most experts believe the increase in diagnosis is due to improved diagnostic methods, but I don't buy that argument, because the diagnostic methods in use are still extremely primitive and obsolete. The diagnostic criteria are still not capable of identifying celiac disease until it is at a very advanced stage, which requires years of accumulated damage to the small intestine. I believe that the increase is due to increased awareness of the disease, both by doctors, and by patients. The internet makes information that was once available only to medical professionals, easily available to anyone who looks for it online. And with increasing awareness, it's not surprising that more people would report suspicious symptoms to their doctors and ask about celiac disease, and more doctors would look for the disease, and therefore diagnose more cases.

UK coeliac disease diagnoses 'up fourfold' over 20 years

But doctors are still only diagnosing a tiny fraction of the cases of celiac disease. The prevalence of celiac disease is estimated to be about 1 % of the general population. But that's based on the current woefully inadequate approved diagnostic methods (using tests with very poor sensitivity). And remember that approximately a third of the population have one or more celiac genes. If we consider all the cases of celiac disease that are either in an early stage (too early to be diagnosed), or for some other reason undetectable by the current testing methods, the percentage is obviously much, much higher. That 1 % is only the tip of the iceberg.

And yet doctors are still only diagnosing about a quarter of the cases defined by that outdated 1 % figure. That means that they are only diagnosing a tiny fraction of all the cases of celiac disease in existence. When are they going to get their act together and get serious about diagnosing celiac disease?

Perhaps of they didn't spend so much of their time trying to dispute the existence of non-celiac gluten sensitivity, they might make some worthwhile progress on this issue. But I'm not holding my breath.

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